Daily Market Commentary for July 13, 2010

Alcoa Aluminum

Alcoa aluminum reported better than expected earnings, sparking a rally early in the session. (Read more at Millennium-Traders.Com) http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/marketcommentaryjuly1310.aspx

Economic data released today:

Trade Balance:
U.S. May Trade Deficit $42.27B; Compared to Consensus of a Deficit of $38.9B; April Trade Balance Revised to a Deficit of $40.32B from a Deficit of $40.29B; May Exports $152.25B, rose 2.4%; Imports $194.52B, rose 2.9%.

Redbook:
U.S. Retail Sales rose 3.1% Week Ended July 10 versus a Year Ago; U.S. Retail Sales First Week July rose 3.1% versus July a Year-Ago; U.S. Retail Sales First Week July fell 0.4% versus June.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism:
U.S. July IBD/TIPP 6-Month Economic Outlook 42.8; U.S. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index 44.7 versus 46.2 in June.

Federal Budget Balance:
U.S. Government Posts $68.4 Billion Total Budget Deficit in June; U.S. Government Deficit for Year 2010 to Date $1.004 Trillion; U.S. Government Deficit in June is 21st Straight Monthly Gap.

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the trading session on the world markets as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:
DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) triple digit gain 153.10 points, EOD 10,369.37
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) triple digit gain 112.76, EOD 6,907.24
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) gain 42.96 points, EOD 2,241.32
S&P 500 (SPX) gain 16.44 point, EOD 1,095.19
BEL 20 (BEL20) gain 45.99 points, EOD 2,516.26
CAC 40 (CAC40) gain 70.1 points, EOD 3,637.76
FTSE100 (UKX100) gain 104 points, EOD 5,271.02
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) shed 10.88 points, EOD 9,537.23

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 2,697, declined stock prices 417, unchanged stock prices 66, stock prices hitting new highs 88 and stock prices hitting new lows 8. NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: RIG shed 2.11, HOD 55.00, LOD 51.83, EOD 51.95; AIG gain 2.38, HOD 38.37, LOD 36.03, EOD 37.95; CSX shed 0.76, HOD 53.90, LOD 50.80, EOD 51.70; CME gain 1.05, HOD 280.88, LOD 277.17, EOD 278.07; MOS shed 0.83, HOD 43.87, LOD 41.63, EOD 41.65; EOG gain 1.25, HOD 108.32, LOD 106.51, EOD 106.79; ID shed 0.30, HOD 7.49, LOD 7.11, EOD 7.21.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 2,257, declined stock prices 465, unchanged stock prices 98, stock prices hitting new highs 34 and stock prices hitting new lows 23. NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: VVUS gain 1.77, HOD 12.75, LOD 11.57, EOD 12.42; AAPL shed 5.56, HOD 256.40, LOD 246.43, EOD 251.73; CVLT shed 5.12, HOD 19.00, LOD 17.25, EOD 18.35; UPRO gain 5.93, HOD 138.26, LOD 134.14, EOD 136.74; PCLN gain 12.32, HOD 218.99, LOD 205.91, EOD 216.32; WYNN gain 3.41, HOD 82.05, LOD 77.00, EOD 81.22; FAST shed 2.18, HOD 52.84, LOD 50.25, EOD 50.44; NVLS gain 1.55, HOD 28.46, LOD 27.06, EOD 28.26.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 365, declined stock prices 137, unchanged stock prices 31, stock prices hitting new highs 6 and stock prices hitting new lows 7.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market for the day, at time of this posting:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Mar 10: EOD 1091.75; Change 15.25
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) Mar 10: EOD 1,843.00; Change 22.75
E-mini DOW $5 (YM) Mar 10: EOD 10,312; Change 131
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 (MF) Mar 10: EOD 751.80; Change -15.90
Nikkei 225 (Yen) Mar 10: EOD 9,650; Change 70

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.7864 to U.S. Dollars 1.2600
Japanese Yen 88.4650 to U.S. Dollars 0.0113
British Pound 0.6592 to U.S. Dollars 1.5200
Canadian Dollar 1.0329 to U.S. Dollars 0.9688
Swiss Franc 1.0547 to U.S. Dollars 0.9477

COMMODITY MARKETS:
Energy Sector - Nymex:
Light Crude (August 10) gain $2.20, EOD $77.15 per barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (August 10) gain $0.05, EOD $2.05 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (August 10) shed $0.03, EOD $4.35 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (August 10) gain $0.05, EOD $2.08 gallon ($US per gallon)

Metals Markets - Comex:
Gold (July 10) gain $14.80, EOD $1,213.30 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (July 10) gain $0.34, EOD $18.24 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (July 10) gain $20.10, EOD $1,531.60 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (July 10) gain $0.01, EOD $3.01 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (July 10) shed $0.10, EOD $78.02
Pork Bellies (July 10) gain $0.50, EOD $102.20
Live Cattle (August 10) gain $0.87, EOD $90.95
Feeder Cattle (August 10) gain $0.95, EOD $113.62

Other Commodities - Chicago Board of Trade (cents per bushel):
Corn (July 10) shed $4.50, EOD $366.75
Soybeans (July 10) shed $1.25, EOD $1,030.50

Access upcoming scheduled economic data anytime by viewing the Economic Calendar from Millennium-Traders, free access to visitors on our website.

Visitors may subscribe to our free Weekly Market News for a review of the previous weeks trading news plus, view upcoming economic data scheduled for the week ahead.

Review current edition as well as, archives of the News & Commentary plus, view complete details of calls made in our Trading Rooms and stock picks from our Swing Trading service. Traders should review our FREE Monthly Trading Lesson posted on our website.
 
Thanks for reading
Millennium-Traders.Com http://www.millennium-traders.com/index.aspx

The markets surged higher today after Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) gave the markets something to cheer about in their earnings report.  Alcoa reported a profit of $0.13 per share when analysts had expected $0.12 per share in earnings.  Revenue also came in ahead of estimates.  For a market that has been worried about a major slow down and possible double dip recession, this was a positive.

While a definite positive for the markets, there are significant negatives that must be recognized.  First, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) just ran into the daily 50 moving average at $109.85.  This level is a major resistance level.  A pull back is expected off this level.  In addition, a majority of this rally is on extremely light volume on the week prior and the week of options expiration.  Lack of volume means lack of participation by institutional players.  Without big money behind the rally, it is unlikely to last very long.

Today, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) reports earnings after the market closes. This will be a major report for the markets, especially the tech sector.  Intel is expected to report a profit of $0.43 per share.  The whisper number among Wall Street traders is for a profit of $0.45 per share. Watch the margin number as well as revenue and outlook.  Those will be most important as traders want to know what the future holds in regards to a possibly slowing economy again.

This rally we have seen over the last week and a half has come directly off the Master Turn Date.  This was released to our members in the Research Center and Intra Day Stock Chat.  It has been wide spread with commodities getting a major move higher.  Stocks like Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) have truly been a leader jumping from a low last week of $67.00 to a high today of $73.45.  This stock is now short term extended and only a short distance from its daily 50 moving average. 

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com

(FAST) - buy
Earnings Play: Fastenal scheduled to release earnings BMO Tuesday of 43c P/S vs 29c P/S a year ago.

(HITK) - buy
Earnings Play: Hi-Tech Pharmacal scheduled to release earnings BMO Tuesday of 54c P/S vs 45c P/S a year ago.

(INFY) - buy
Earnings Play: Infosys Technologies scheduled to release earnings BMO Tuesday of 56c P/S vs 55c P/S a year ago.

(NVLS) - buy
Novellus reported Q2 earnings 6c better than consensus and revenues rose 169.6% YoY.

(CLB) - buy
Core Lab declared a special cash dividend of 65c P/S of common stock payable on August 23, 2010 to shareholders of record on July 23, 2010.

(AA) - buy
Alcoa posted a stronger-than-expected sQ2 profit net earnings of $136M compared with loss of $454M for same quarter last year.

(ID) - short
L-1 Identity Solutions reported expectations for 1H revenues to be below previously provided expectations.

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ForexPros Daily Analysis July 13, 2010


Free webinar on ForexPros - Live Trading with Price Level Principle (PLP) - Part III
Expert: Rajoo C
When: Thu, July 15, 2010, 11 GMT

In this session, Rajoo C will discuss the topics of:

   1. Identifying entry, exit & stop loss level
   2. How to choose the best cross to trade out of 36 currency crosses
   3. Q&A
   4. Precise Trader’s viable trades

This webinar is the last in a 3-part educational series brought to you by Precise Trader and Forexpros.com.

Click here to join free

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Fundamental Analysis: FOMC Meeting Minutes

The American traders anticipate the publication oh The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes, them being a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so Currency traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro did not decisively break the support or the resistance specified in yesterday’s report: it stopped 4 pips above the resistance specified in the report, and then found a bottom only 2 pips below the report’s support. The price topped at 1.2720 on Friday, in what turned out to be the most serious test of the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart. The drop which followed the week’s open, raised the possibilities that we could be before an important turning point at the channel top, especially after dropping from Friday’s high 150 pips so far. As we said in our last report: “We will not be able to escape the fact that a break here will be a very positive signal for both the short & medium terms. But, if we keep trading below (or around) it, we could be facing a turning point which will probably lead to a drop of hundreds of points”, and we still stand by this view!  Short term support is at 1.2552, and once we break it, we will start drifting away from the channel top, and will target 1.2442, and may be 1.2393. The resistance is at 1.2601, and if broken, the negative outlook we have been praising will get a “shock”, and the Euro will be on the way to 1.2737, and may be 1.2801.

Support:
• 1.2552: Wednesday’s low.
• 1.2442: May 18th high.
• 1.2393: June 25th high.


Resistance:
• 1.2601: the falling trend line from Friday’s top on hourly chart.
• 1.2737: May 12th high.
• 1.2801: May 11th high.

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USD/JPY

The Dollar/Yen retreated a little bit, and found a bottom at 88.37. As we have explained several times, it seems that we are in a wave 4 correction now (please refer to the attached chart), which will ideally target a Fibonacci ratio of the wave 3 dive. But the important question now is this: is the 4th wave correction done? yesterday’s close produced a shooting star pattern on the daily chart, making us believe that this correction is probably over! Short term support is at Friday’s top 88.37, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of the drop to 87.35 & 86.47. The resistance is at 88.76, and breaking it would mean that the Dollar will continue to capitalize its latest bounce, which will ideally target Fibonacci levels for wave 3: 89.52 & 90.13. This pair is going as expected, in the expected direction, and in convergence with our negative technical outlook for the medium term. We absolutely expect the fall to continue on the medium term. But we should not neglect the enormous possibilities of a bounce up targeting Fibonacci levels: a bounce is highly probable, and it is most likely to be just a temp, but the trend is down without a shadow of a doubt!

Support:
• 88.37: yesterday’s low which was tested twice.
• 87.35: an obvious support area on the hourly chart, and Dec 9th 09 low.
• 86.47: previous well known support.

Resistance:
• 88.76: the falling trend line from Asian session high on intraday charts.
• 89.52: Fibonacci 50% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).
• 90.13: Fibonacci 61.8% for the wave 3 dive (from 92.09).

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Forex trading analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.

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Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

To be traders or investors in futures or energy market, we need to keep up with changes in the trading platform. And this is the time for reviewing what going on when the new week starts:


Crude Oil had a very nice bounce last week as the August flatprice rallied from $71.00 to $76.00 as the equity market rallied from 1000 to 1070 in the S&P.  Inventory reports were a draw in the oil space and in the Cushing market and thus led to the charge in the WTI spreads.  The front spreads are now in the -40's as this is somewhat of a bullish sign long-term.  This week, however, I believe you will see some profit taking and the market trending back toward the $74 level but I would be a buyer there as that is a nice valuation point for the crude market. 
 
China’s net crude purchases climbed to 22.14 million metric tons in June, beating the previous record of 20.98 million tons in April, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs on July 10. Imports surged 30 percent in the first half of this year on higher demand and lower costs. (1)  These numbers do signify that demand is coming back into the market, especially Chinese demand, so these numbers should not go unnoticed.
 
Natural Gas slipped to $4.40 and is a great buying opportunity as it is on the low end of the range trade.  Inventory reports did not sit well with traders as the market came off but this price level offers a great value buy in the Natty Gas.

By PitGuru Daniel Cronin

The futures prices are delayed and updated periodically. And here is Futures Prices as of Jul 13, 2010, as traders in floor, you may need. Just consult exchange for current prices!

Hello Traders,
I stopped posting trades several weeks ago.  In the month of June I made 525 pips.
 Starting today, I will start to post overviews of my previous day predictions.

Overview of Predictions July 12

Prediction:   GU is very bearish with support 4935/40 and lower 4900/4895 with resistances at 5015/20 and higher up at 5055/60..scalp long and trend short…

Results:

1.  Short @ 5015, DD: 25 pips; MP: 16 pips.  This was a trend trade that hit our SL for -25 pips.

2.  Short @ 5060, DD: 24 pips;  MP: 65 pips.  This was a trend trade that just missed our SL and was closed at 2 pm EST for a 50 pip profit.

Note:  If entry at the second trend level was at 5055 then SL had to cover 5060 level by 25 pips with your broker spread taken into account.

Overall Profit/Loss:  +25

Pips this Month:  +65

Daily Market Commentary for July 12, 2010

Earning Season

Earning season kicks off today after the close, with Alcoa being the first to report. (Read more at Millennium-Traders.Com) http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/marketcommentaryjuly1210.aspx

Economic data released today: N/A

At the NYSE closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange, here is how the major world indices and major U.S. stock indices ended the trading session on the world markets as well as the emerging markets including the stock market closing bell price:
DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) gain 9.23 points, EOD 10,207.26
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) shed 14.27, EOD 6,794.44
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) gain 1.93 points, EOD 2,198.38
S&P 500 (SPX) gain 0.62 point, EOD 1,078.58
BEL 20 (BEL20) gain 7.52 points, EOD 2,470.27
CAC 40 (CAC40) gain 13.18 points, EOD 3,567.66
FTSE100 (UKX100) gain 34.08 points, EOD 5,167.02
NIKKEI 225 (NIK/O) shed 37.21 points, EOD 9,548.11

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 1,116, declined stock prices 1,961, unchanged stock prices 91, stock prices hitting new highs 78 and stock prices hitting new lows 14. NYSE quotes for volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the New York Stock Exchange stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: BP gain 2.73, HOD 37.00, LOD 35.42, EOD 36.78; WY gain 2.98, HOD 41.94, LOD 37.12, EOD 38.82; MA shed 1.81, HOD 215.48, LOD 211.30, EOD 213.71; CMI shed 0.89, HOD 71.70, LOD 69.87, EOD 70.64; CME shed 0.52, HOD 279.28, LOD 275.00, EOD 276.67; RIG gain 2.20, HOD 54.30, LOD 52.50, EOD 54.03; MOS shed 3.63, HOD 46.23, LOD 41.73, EOD 42.50.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 832, declined stock prices 1,878, unchanged stock prices 91, stock prices hitting new highs 31 and stock prices hitting new lows 44. NASDAQ quotes, volatile stocks and market trends, as well as stock quotes, stock prices and stock symbols of Day Trading Stock Picks on the NASDAQ stock market for Day Trading online and active Day Trading for those who are or would like to be Day Trading for a living: AAPL shed 2.33, HOD 261.85, LOD 254.86, EOD 257.29; GOOG gain 8.34, HOD 479.44, LOD 471.08, EOD 475.83; WYNN shed 1.79, HOD 80.00, LOD 76.60, EOD 77.81; SHAW shed 0.31, HOD 35.50, LOD 33.89, EOD 34.68.

Market trends on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and stock market indicators for the trading session today:
Advanced stock prices 211, declined stock prices 275, unchanged stock prices 39, stock prices hitting new highs 15 and stock prices hitting new lows 8.

Chicago Board of Trade Futures Market for the day, at time of this posting:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) Mar 10: EOD 1074.00; Change 1.50
E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ) Mar 10: EOD 1,817.00; Change 5.50
E-mini DOW $5 (YM) Mar 10: EOD 10,151; Change 19
E-mini S&P MidCap 400 (MF) Mar 10: EOD 733.60; Change -1.40
Nikkei 225 (Yen) Mar 10: EOD 9,585; Change -30

World Currencies for the Forex Market, for Forex Trading by active Forex Traders, at time of this posting:
Euro 0.7941 to U.S. Dollars 1.2600
Japanese Yen 88.5850 to U.S. Dollars 0.0112
British Pound 0.6652 to U.S. Dollars 1.5000
Canadian Dollar 1.0372 to U.S. Dollars 0.9637
Swiss Franc 1.0598 to U.S. Dollars 0.9432

COMMODITY MARKETS:
Energy Sector - Nymex:
Light Crude (August 10) shed $1.14, EOD $74.95 per barrel ($US per barrel)
Heating Oil (August 10) shed $0.03, EOD $1.99 a gallon ($US per gallon)
Natural Gas (August 10) shed $0.01, EOD $4.39 per million BTU ($US per mmbtu.)
Unleaded Gas (August 10) shed $0.04, EOD $2.03 gallon ($US per gallon)

Metals Markets - Comex:
Gold (July 10) shed $11.10, EOD $1,198.50 ($US per Troy ounce)
Silver (July 10) shed $0.15, EOD $17.90 ($US per Troy ounce)
Platinum (July 10) shed $17.50, EOD $1,511.50 ($US per Troy ounce)
Copper (July 10) shed $0.04, EOD $3.00 ($US per pound)

Livestock and Meat Markets - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (cents per lb.):
Lean Hogs (July 10) shed $0.50, EOD $78.12
Pork Bellies (July 10) shed $0.50, EOD $101.70
Live Cattle (August 10) shed $0.12, EOD $90.08
Feeder Cattle (August 10) shed $0.52, EOD $112.68

Other Commodities - Chicago Board of Trade (cents per bushel):
Corn (July 10) shed $4.00, EOD $371.25
Soybeans (July 10) gain $6.25, EOD $1,031.75

Access upcoming scheduled economic data anytime by viewing the Economic Calendar from Millennium-Traders, free access to visitors on our website.

Visitors may subscribe to our free Weekly Market News for a review of the previous weeks trading news plus, view upcoming economic data scheduled for the week ahead.

Review current edition as well as, archives of the News & Commentary plus, view complete details of calls made in our Trading Rooms and stock picks from our Swing Trading service. Traders should review our FREE Monthly Trading Lesson posted on our website.

Thanks for reading
Millennium-Traders.Com http://www.millennium-traders.com/index.aspx

(GOOG) - buy
After Google reported after the bell Thursday, gains are potentially set to continue, over next trading session.

(MSFT) - buy
Microsoft and Fujitsu Ltd. will likely announce in the coming week an agreement to join forces in cloud computing.

(CMI) - buy
Cummins announced Friday they will spend $100M to expand southern Indiana factory and hire 200 people in manufacturing and engineering jobs over the next five years.

(SHAW) - short
Earnings Play: Shaw Group expected to release earnings Monday before the bell of 54c P/S compared to 57c P/S a year ago.

(HBC) - short
HSBC has seen sees Federal Prosecutors ramping up their criminal investigation concerning its sale of offshore tax services to wealthy Americans suspected of evading taxes.

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